Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.
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2018
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By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian
North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term
rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC
models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to
baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region
could decrease by approximately 25–50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall
data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57 years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the
1961–90 long-termaverage.Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been belowits long-termaverage
every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be evenmore
severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for
2100, based on the IPCC highemissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor
between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the
reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline
in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially
by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE
region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production.
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Rainfall, Streamflow, Renewable energy, Drought
Citação
JONG, P de. et al.; Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability. Science of the Total Environment, v. 634, p. 1540-1553, 2018. Disponível em: <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718310143?via%3Dihub>. Acesso em: 15 fev. 2019.