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Title: A critical look at prospective surveillance using a scan statistic.
Authors: Correa, Thais Rotsen
Assunção, Renato Martins
Costa, Marcelo Azevedo
Keywords: Average run length
Recurrence interval
Scan statistic
Issue Date: 2015
Citation: CORREA, T. R.; ASSUNÇÃO, R. M.; COSTA, M. A. A critical look at prospective surveillance using a scan statistic. Statistics in Medicine, v. 34, p. 1081-1093, 2015. Disponível em: <>. Acesso em: 15 fev. 2017.
Abstract: The scan statistic is a very popular surveillance technique for purely spatial, purely temporal, and spatialtemporal disease data. It was extended to the prospective surveillance case, and it has been applied quite extensively in this situation.When the usual signal rules, as those implemented in SaTScanTM( Boston, MA, USA) software, are used, we show that the scan statistic method is not appropriate for the prospective case. The reason is that it does not adjust properly for the sequential and repeated tests carried out during the surveillance. We demonstrate that the nominal significance level 𝛼 is notmeaningful and there is no relationship between 𝛼 and the recurrence interval or the average run length (ARL). In some cases, the ARL may be equal to ∞, which makes the method ineffective. This lack of control of the type-I error probability and of the ARL leads us to strongly oppose the use of the scan statistic with the usual signal rules in the prospective context.
ISSN: 1097-0258
Appears in Collections:DEEST - Artigos publicados em periódicos

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