DSpace Coleção:http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/47902024-03-29T01:41:41Z2024-03-29T01:41:41ZRegression model for the reported infected during emerging pandemics under the stochastic SEIR.Silva, Ivair RamosZhuang, YanBhattacharjee, DebanjanAlmeida, Igor Ribeiro dehttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/172182023-08-16T21:06:11Z2023-01-01T00:00:00ZTítulo: Regression model for the reported infected during emerging pandemics under the stochastic SEIR.
Autor(es): Silva, Ivair Ramos; Zhuang, Yan; Bhattacharjee, Debanjan; Almeida, Igor Ribeiro de
Resumo: The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the necessity of measuring the statistical relationship
between the transmission rate of epidemic diseases and the social/behavioral, logistical,
and economic variables of the affected region. This paper introduces a regression model
to estimate the impact of such covariates on the infectious rate of epidemiological agents.
Hidden logistical predictor components, such as weekly seasonality of reported data, can
also be accessed with the proposed methodology. For this, we assume that the dynamics
of officially reported data of emerging pandemics, related to infected groups, follows a
stochastic SEIR model. The main advantage of our method is that it is based on a new three-
step algorithm that combines the classical likelihood principle, the minimization of the mean
squared error, and a tri-section algorithm to estimate, simultaneously, the coefficients of the
covariates and the parameters of the compartmental model. Simulation studies are provided
to certify the accuracy of the proposed inference methodology. The model is further applied
to analyze the official statistical reports of COVID-19 data in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.2023-01-01T00:00:00ZFixed-length interval estimation of population sizes : sequential adaptive Monte Carlo mark–recapture–mark sampling.Silva, Ivair RamosBhattacharjee, DebanjanZhuang, Yanhttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/172172023-08-16T21:03:26Z2023-01-01T00:00:00ZTítulo: Fixed-length interval estimation of population sizes : sequential adaptive Monte Carlo mark–recapture–mark sampling.
Autor(es): Silva, Ivair Ramos; Bhattacharjee, Debanjan; Zhuang, Yan
Resumo: Mark–recapture sampling schemes are conventional approaches for population size (N)
estimation. In this paper, we mainly focus on providing fixed-length confidence interval
estimation methodologies for N under a mark–recapture–mark sampling scheme, where,
during the resampling phase, non-marked items are marked before they are released back
in the population. Using a Monte Carlo method, the interval estimates for N are obtained
through a purely sequential procedure with an adaptive stopping rule. Such an adaptive deci-
sion criterion enables the user to “learn” with the subsequent marked and newly tagged items.
The method is then compared with a recently developed accelerated sequential procedure in
terms of coverage probability and expected number of captured items during the resampling
stage. To illustrate, we explain how the proposed procedure could be applied to estimate
the number of infected COVID-19 individuals in a near-closed population. In addition, we
present a numeric application inspired on the problem of estimating the population size of
endangered monkeys of the Atlantic forest in Brazil.2023-01-01T00:00:00ZBounded-width confidence interval following optimal sequential analysis of adverse events with binary data.Silva, Ivair RamosZhuang, Yanhttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/172162023-08-16T21:00:16Z2022-01-01T00:00:00ZTítulo: Bounded-width confidence interval following optimal sequential analysis of adverse events with binary data.
Autor(es): Silva, Ivair Ramos; Zhuang, Yan
Resumo: In sequential testing with binary data, sample size and time to detect a signal are the key performance measures to opti-
mize. While the former should be optimized in Phase III clinical trials, minimizing the latter is of major importance in post-
market drug and vaccine safety surveillance of adverse events. The precision of the relative risk estimator on termination
of the analysis is a meaningful design criterion as well. This paper presents a linear programming framework to find the
optimal alpha spending that minimizes expected time to signal, or expected sample size as needed. The solution enables
(a) to bound the width of the confidence interval following the end of the analysis, (b) designs with outer signaling thresh-
olds and inner non-signaling thresholds, and (c) sequential designs with variable Bernoulli probabilities. To illustrate, we
use real data on the monitoring of adverse events following the H1N1 vaccination. The numerical results are obtained
using the R Sequential package.2022-01-01T00:00:00ZAssociation of hypovitaminosis d with sleep parameters in rotating shift worker drivers.Menezes Júnior, Luiz Antônio Alves deFajardo, Virgínia CapistranoNascimento Neto, Raimundo Marques doFreitas, Silvia Nascimento deOliveira, Fernando Luiz Pereira dePimenta, Fausto Aloísio PedrosaCoelho, George Luiz Lins MachadoMeireles, Adriana Lúciahttp://www.repositorio.ufop.br/jspui/handle/123456789/172152023-10-20T21:12:24Z2023-01-01T00:00:00ZTítulo: Association of hypovitaminosis d with sleep parameters in rotating shift worker drivers.
Autor(es): Menezes Júnior, Luiz Antônio Alves de; Fajardo, Virgínia Capistrano; Nascimento Neto, Raimundo Marques do; Freitas, Silvia Nascimento de; Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Pereira de; Pimenta, Fausto Aloísio Pedrosa; Coelho, George Luiz Lins Machado; Meireles, Adriana Lúcia
Resumo: Objective To evaluate the association between sleep parameters and hypovitami-
nosis D in rotating shift drivers.
Material and Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study on 82 male rotating
shift workers (24–57 years old) with at least one cardiovascular risk factor (such as
hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, abdominal obesity, physical inactivity, hypertension, and
smoking). Polysomnography was used to evaluate sleep parameters. Logistic regres-
sion was used to model the association between hypovitaminosis D and sleep
parameters after adjustment for relevant covariates.
Results Hypovitaminosis D (< 20 ng/mL) was seen in 30.5% of the workers. Shift
workers with hypovitaminosis D had lower sleep efficiency (odds ratio [OR]: 3.68; 95%
confidence interval [CI]: 1.95–5.53), lower arterial oxygen saturation (OR: 5.35; 95% CI:
3.37–6.12), and increased microarousal index (OR: 3.85; 95% CI: 1.26–5.63) after
adjusting.
Conclusion We suggest that hypovitaminosis D is associated with greater sleep
disturbances in rotating shift workers.2023-01-01T00:00:00Z